New York Politician Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
New York politician prediction markets attach to a person, so this index gives a page to each officeholder a New York contract names. A contract labelled with a name need not resolve on that name.
People
6 people| Portrait | Person | Named in | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| AD | Antonio DelgadoLieutenant Governor of New York | Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? — Yes 2% | In office since |
| KH | Kathy HochulGovernor of New York | New York Governor Odds 2026 — Yes 97% · 4 more · 7 stories | In office since |
| ZM | Zohran MamdaniMayor of New York City | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% · 19 more · 1 story | In office since |
| AO | Alexandria Ocasio-CortezUnited States Representative for New York's 14th congressional district | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% · 4 more | In office since |
| CS | Chuck SchumerUnited States Senator from New York | Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader? — Yes 12% · 2 more | In office since |
| JT | Jessica TischNew York City Police Commissioner | Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? — Jessica Tisch 21% · 2 more · 1 story | In office since |
Top stories
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AnalysisSiena Put Hochul Up 14, and the Governor Market Moved One Point Because It Was Already Past the Voters
Kalshi had a Democratic hold at 96% on October 29, 2026, a point above its price before Siena's poll, which means the exchanges were already surer of a Hochul win than the 68% of voters who expect one.
Photo: Marc A. Hermann / Metropolitan Transportation Authority, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
Local newsConley Outraised Lawler More Than Three to One in Early October, and Lawler Still Has Twice Her Cash
Conley raised 1.04 million dollars from October 1 to 14 to Lawler's 316,400, yet Lawler closed with 1.96 million on hand to her 948,500, which means the final weeks open with one side ahead on pace and the other on reserves.
Photo: Tia Dufour / U.S. Department of Homeland Security, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Local newsBlakeman Stepped Away From Trump in the Only Governor's Debate, and Both Exchanges Added a Point
Polymarket had a Republican win at 5% on October 15, 2026, up from 4% before the debate, which means traders read Blakeman's step away from Trump as a small gain rather than a reset of a race he trails by double digits.
Photo: Arthur Raslich / Nassau County Photo Archives via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
What the New York People Index Holds
Two conditions admit a person, and both have to hold. A New York contract has to name them, whether as an officeholder or as a candidate, and an official record has to state the office they hold, so identity comes from the office's own page and from Wikidata rather than from the label an exchange prints on a contract. That is what the index covers: the statewide executive offices, the state's 26 seats in the U.S. House, whose holders are listed by the Clerk of the House, its seats in the U.S. Senate, listed on the Senate's own roster, and the New York City offices a contract names, the mayor and the police commissioner. Kathy Hochul has been Governor since August 24, 2021. Antonio Delgado was appointed Lieutenant Governor in May 2022 and has held the office since May 25, 2022. Each page carries the office, the day it began and the record that states both, and pages run alphabetically by surname.
What Changes the New York People Index
Offices change hands on a date and by a document, which is why this index moves in steps rather than continuously. The next scheduled step is the general election of November 3, 2026, when the statewide offices and every New York House seat are decided; between elections it is an appointment, a resignation or a swearing in that changes an entry, and each is taken from the office's own record rather than from a projection. The other thing that changes the index is coverage: a new contract naming a New Yorker adds a page, and a national contract that happens to name one does not, because where a person lives is not what makes a market New York's. That outcome is shown on the person's page and linked out to the market carrying it.
Why New York Politician Prediction Markets
A contract puts a continuously updated number on a question a press release only asserts, and because the question is binary that number reads as an implied probability. The catch on this vertical is that the question is often not the person. Both 2026 New York governor contracts resolve Yes only if a representative of that party is inaugurated as governor pursuant to the 2026 election, and each carries a person's name purely as its label while its subtitle and its resolution text are the party. So no page in this index presents a party price as anyone's personal odds. Settlement runs on certification by the State Board of Elections, and where two exchanges list the same New York question the person's page shows both rather than an average. The races themselves are indexed at /elections, the contracts at /markets, and the vertical is framed at /politics.
Questions readers ask
How do prediction markets on politicians work?
A contract that carries a politician's name still settles on a stated outcome rather than on the person, and the New York contracts state a party. It pays at its full value on Yes or at nothing on No once the office is filled, and the price is what the market implies about that outcome.
Which New York politicians have prediction markets?
Officeholders and candidates a New York contract names, once an official record states the office they hold. The statewide executive offices are held by Kathy Hochul, Governor of New York since August 24, 2021, and Antonio Delgado, Lieutenant Governor since May 25, 2022, and the Clerk of the House lists the holders of New York's seats in the U.S. House.
How does a New York market naming a politician settle?
On the party, not the person. Both 2026 New York governor contracts resolve Yes only if a representative of that party is inaugurated pursuant to the 2026 election, and a district contract resolves on the party of the member sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, with certification by the State Board of Elections behind both.
Where can I trade New York markets on politicians?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list New York contracts that carry a politician's name, and a person's page names the venue behind every figure it reports. Two prices on the same question are shown side by side here, never averaged into one.
Are prediction markets on politicians legal in New York?
Standing is not settled on a person page. The legal status page carries the New York filings and the orders entered on them, each with its date, and it is read again when the record changes.