New York Gas Price Predictions & Odds

How New York Gas Price Markets Settle

New York gas prices on this page are AAA's. Each daily contract settles on AAA's average price for a gallon of regular gasoline across New York State on the date the contract names. The exchange lists the series as KXAAAGASDNY and names AAA as its only source agency, pointing at AAA's New York page on gasprices.aaa.com, which publishes the state average every day to a tenth of a cent.

The exchange's contract terms define the underlying as the average price of regular in the named area on the named date, and they settle on the value AAA shows at the contract's expiration time. A revision AAA makes after expiration does not count, and if AAA publishes nothing for the date, the last day with data stands in. Trading on a date's contract closes at 11:59 p.m. Eastern the night before, so the market is always pricing a reading that has not been published yet.

The figure is a statewide average of regular, so a single station sits above or below it, and mid-grade, premium and diesel play no part.

How to Read the New York Gas Price Board

Each rung on the New York gas price board asks one question: will AAA's state average for the date be strictly greater than the price on the rung? The rungs sit half a cent apart, so the odds fall from left to right. The market line is the price at which those odds pass even, the closest thing the board has to one expected figure for the day.

Beside the board sits the last settled day, AAA's figure for the most recent date whose contract has resolved. The gap between the market line and that figure is the one-day move the market expects, up or down, and both shift through the day as trades come in.

What Moves New York Gas Prices

Crude oil is the largest part of what a gallon costs anywhere in the country, according to the Energy Information Administration, and it moves every state together. What sets New York gas prices apart is closer to home.

Tax: New York charges gasoline a motor fuel excise tax and a petroleum business tax by the gallon, under Tax Law Articles 12-A and 13-A. The petroleum business tax is adjusted every January 1 because the Tax Law requires it, and for 2026 the two taxes and a petroleum testing fee come to $0.2385 a gallon, according to the Department of Taxation and Finance. Sales tax comes on top: the state and the Metropolitan Commuter Transportation District charge it by the gallon, while most counties and cities apply a percentage of the price, so the tax inside the pump price differs from county to county.

Supply and blend: The Energy Information Administration places New York in the Central Atlantic subdistrict of the East Coast supply region, PADD 1B, alongside New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Federal rules require reformulated gasoline, a cleaner-burning blend, in the five counties of New York City and in Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange and Putnam, and Dutchess County opted in; most of upstate sells conventional gasoline. EIA counts those required formulations among the reasons refining costs differ by region.

Calendar: EPA's summer volatility limits apply at retail stations from June 1 to September 15, and EIA notes that summer demand generally brings higher prices.

New York Gas Price History

The history chart plots AAA's settled New York figure for each day the daily contract has resolved. The record begins with the contract for August 26, 2026, the first New York date the exchange listed, so the all-time view starts there rather than with AAA's longer archive. The 7-day and 30-day views roll forward with the calendar, each showing the change across its own window, and every point is the reading the contract used, so a later AAA revision never moves it.

Year-Long New York Gas Price Markets

Two longer New York gas boards read the same AAA state average but ask how far the whole year goes. The year-high ladder pays Yes on a rung if the state average is strictly greater than its level at any point between the rung's listing and December 31, 2026, and a rung closes early the first time it is crossed. The New York year-high gas market page explains that ladder in full. The year-low ladder is its mirror image: each rung asks whether the state average drops strictly below its level by December 31, 2026. Both follow the exchange's AAAGASMINMAX terms, which treat the underlying as the set of daily averages across the window rather than any single day.