Polymarket
KalshiClaudia Tenney Has Won the 24th by Thirty Points Twice, and the Market Prices Her Race Against Alissa Ellman the Same Way
The New York 24th District race in 2026 is Republican Claudia Tenney, the sitting member, against Democrat Alissa Ellman, and the market treats it as one of the safest Republican holds in the state. Tenney won the seat by more than 100,000 votes on November 5, 2024 and by more than 85,000 two years earlier, and what the price is saying is that nothing on the 2026 ballot gives it a reason to doubt a repeat. The district runs across eight whole counties, from Orleans and Genesee to Oswego and Yates, and parts of six more in western and central New York, and its voters settle the seat on November 3, 2026. Both venues pay on the winner's party, and the live board above carries the current figure.
Who is on the NY-24 ballot in 2026
The ballot is short. The State Board of Elections' amended certification for the general election, dated September 17, 2026, lists Claudia Tenney on the Republican and Conservative lines and Alissa J. Ellman on the Democratic and Working Families lines for Representative in Congress, District 24, and no other name for the seat. It draws the district as Genesee, Livingston, Orleans, Oswego, Seneca, Wayne, Wyoming and Yates counties, with parts of Cayuga, Jefferson, Niagara, Ontario, Schuyler and Steuben.
The ballot was the last part of this race to settle. The certification's version history records that the September 17, 2026 amendment removed a "Litigation Pending" note from the District 24 entry, and Ballotpedia lists three candidates, Ken Estes and Tony Macula as independents and Todd Sloan of the Upstate Party, as withdrawn or disqualified. With the note gone, the matchup the market prices is the matchup voters see.
Tenney is the incumbent. The Clerk of the House's member list, published October 1, 2026, gives the 24th District to Claudia Tenney, a Republican from Canandaigua, elected on November 5, 2024 and sworn in on January 3, 2025. She was unopposed for the Republican nomination, per Ballotpedia. Ellman won hers: Ballotpedia's certified results show her beating Diana Kastenbaum in the Democratic primary on June 23, 2026 by 10,197 votes to 6,307.
What the NY-24 price is saying
The market rests on a record with no close calls in it. Ballotpedia's certified results show Tenney beating Steven Holden on November 8, 2022 by 182,054 votes to 95,028, and David Wagenhauser on November 5, 2024 by 235,867 to 123,317, which is a margin of roughly 31 points in both a midterm and a presidential year. Cook's Partisan Voter Index, as reported by Ballotpedia, rates the district R+11, the 96th most Republican seat in the country, and Donald Trump carried it 61.2% to 38.1% over Kamala Harris on November 5, 2024. A district that gives the same member the same margin in two very different electorates fits exactly the profile forecasters rate Solid.
The forecasters say exactly that. Ballotpedia's ratings table for its October 20, 2026 update has the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections at Solid Republican and Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk HQ at Safe Republican, unchanged since its July 21, 2026 update. Federal Election Commission figures compiled by Ballotpedia show Tenney with $3.08M in receipts and $836K in cash on hand as of October 14, 2026, against $452K raised and $46K on hand for Ellman on the same date. Ballotpedia lists no public poll and under $2K in outside spending in the race, all of it against Tenney by a single group.
The price has barely moved all fall. Polymarket had the Republican contract at 94% on September 1, 2026, 95% on October 5, 2026 and 96% on October 23, 2026, with Kalshi at 97% on the last date. On the Democratic side Polymarket went from 7% on September 1, 2026 to 2% on October 23, 2026, while Kalshi had Democrats at 4% on October 23. That two-point gap between the venues on the long shot is the only real disagreement on the board, and it means the two venues agree on the favorite and differ only on how much a Democratic upset is worth.
The case against the NY-24 read
The strongest case against the read is not that Ellman is ahead; nothing public says she is. It is that a contract this lopsided still draws real money on the other side. As of October 23, 2026, Polymarket counted about $27.0K traded on the Ellman outcome against about $24.2K on Tenney, and Kalshi about 9,473 contracts on the Democratic contract against about 9,033 on the Republican. Those totals cover each contract's whole life, and a cheap contract always takes more shares per dollar, but a holder of the counterview would say a board where the long shot draws as much trading as the favorite is a board where some traders see a race the forecasters do not.
That holder would add that the District 24 entry carried a "Litigation Pending" note until September 17, 2026, so even the ballot was settled late, and that a district this large, spread over fourteen counties, is one where a midterm turnout swing can move faster than any forecaster's rating. None of that is evidence of a close race. It is the argument that a price this close to certain leaves too little room for what nobody has measured, in a seat with no public poll at all.
What changes the NY-24 read
The read is wrong if Ellman wins on November 3, 2026, and it is overstated if Tenney's margin falls far below the roughly 31 points she won by in 2022 and 2024. Before then, these are the dated, observable things that would move it:
• Early voting, October 24 to November 1, 2026: the first ballots cast, and the first measure of whether turnout across the fourteen counties looks like 2022's or 2024's.
• Ratings: any of the four forecasters moving off Solid or Safe Republican, where all four sat on Ballotpedia's October 20, 2026 update, would be the first outside signal of a race.
• Outside money: Ballotpedia counted under $2K in independent spending as of October 23, 2026; party or super PAC spending on Ellman's behalf would change the picture faster than anything else.
• A public poll: none is listed; one showing a single-digit race would be new information the price has never had to absorb.
• Election night, November 3, 2026: county returns read against Tenney's 2024 total of 235,867 votes.
When the NY-24 market resolves
Kalshi and Polymarket settle the same question on different events. Kalshi's KXHOUSERACE-NY24-26 pair, listed on January 7, 2026, pays Yes on the Republican contract if the House member sworn in for NY-24 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, and on the Democratic contract on the same test; it is eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, with an expected expiration of January 4, 2027 and a latest expiration of November 3, 2027. Polymarket's NY-24 House Election Winner market resolves on the party of the candidate who wins the seat at the November 3, 2026 election, reads party from the ballot-listed affiliation, and settles on a consensus of credible reporting. A seat this one-sided is usually called early on election night, and both venues would then settle on the same answer.
Related New York markets
The other western and northern New York seats are priced the same way: the New York 23rd District market page covers the seat that shares parts of Niagara, Schuyler and Steuben counties with the 24th, and the New York 21st District market page the open seat that shares part of Jefferson County. For a seat priced as a genuine contest, the New York 17th District market page is the state's closest House race. The statewide race on the same ballot is on the New York governor market page, and every race this site follows is collected on the New York elections hub.
