New York Weather Prediction Markets & Temperature Odds
New York weather prediction markets pay out on a number a weather station publishes, not on anybody's forecast. What they price is a New York city's official daily high, daily low or monthly rainfall.
New York City
87 open contracts · 3 observation daysCity board →- ≤55°<1%+99900POLY
- 56–57°<1%+99900POLY
- 58–59°<1%+99900POLY
- 60–61°<1%+24900POLY
- 62–63°2%+4900POLY
- ≤64°25%+300KAL
- 64–65°16%+525POLY
- 65–66°70%-233KAL
- 66–67°71%-245POLY
- 67–68°8%+1150KAL
- 68–69°12%+733POLY
- 69–70°2%+4900KAL
- 70–71°1%+12400POLY
- 71–72°1%+9900KAL
- 72–73°<1%+49900POLY
- ≥73°1%+9900KAL
- ≥74°<1%+99900POLY
- ≤39°1%+19900POLY
- 40–41°1%+19900POLY
- ≤42°10%+900KAL
- 42–43°1%+11011POLY
- 43–44°77%-335KAL
- 44–45°2%+4900POLY
- 45–46°6%+1567KAL
- 46–47°2%+4900POLY
- 47–48°1%+9900KAL
- 48–49°11%+809POLY
- 49–50°1%+9900KAL
- 50–51°90%-900POLY
- ≥51°1%+9900KAL
- 52–53°<1%+49900POLY
- 54–55°<1%+49900POLY
- 56–57°<1%+99900POLY
- ≥58°<1%+99900POLY
- ≤59°<1%+99900
- 60–61°<1%+99900
- 62–63°1%+19900
- 64–65°1%+19900
- 66–67°6%+1567
- 68–69°49%+104
- 70–71°43%+133
- 72–73°1%+16567
- 74–75°1%+19900
- 76–77°<1%+99900
- ≥78°<1%+99900
- ≤43°—
- 44–45°—
- 46–47°—
- 48–49°—
- 50–51°3%+3233
- 52–53°20%+400
- 54–55°40%+150
- 56–57°36%+178
- 58–59°3%+3233
- 60–61°1%+11011
- ≥62°1%+9900
Top New York Weather Markets
Three questions carry a New York city's weather, and all three are written as ladders. A daily high ladder asks where the day's maximum temperature lands, a daily low ladder asks the same of the minimum, and a rainfall ladder asks how many inches fall across a calendar month. Rather than one contract with a yes and a no, an exchange lists one contract for each band: two-degree brackets across the middle of a temperature range, bands or a set of more-than lines in inches for rain, and an open cell at either end that catches any reading past the brackets. Within one exchange's row the bands do not overlap and leave no gap, so the row reads as one distribution rather than as a menu, and the tallest cell on it is the band that book favors.
What Moves New York Weather Markets
A weather ladder reprices on a schedule, which is what separates it from a season contract on a club. Each new National Weather Service forecast run for the New York area shifts weight along the row before the observation day opens. Once it opens, the hourly observations take over: a maximum already recorded cannot be taken back, so the bands beneath it empty out and the row narrows hour by hour. The calendar sets the range the row sits in, since a September high ladder brackets a different set of numbers from a January one, and a monthly rainfall ladder moves storm by storm with fewer days left to change it each time.
Why New York Weather Prediction Markets
A forecast hands a reader one number and a chance of rain. A ladder hands over the whole shape at once, a price on every band, and each of those prices reads as the implied probability of that band; the guide to reading a probability sets out what that claim does and does not mean. Settlement is what makes the arithmetic honest: the contract names a station and a published reading, the reading either falls inside a band or it does not, and nothing is left to interpret afterwards. The station belongs to the contract rather than to the city, so two exchanges can write on the same New York day and settle on different thermometers. That is why each ladder names the exchange quoting it, and why one book's price is one book's price rather than a consensus. A New York city gets a board here once an exchange lists a ladder for it, and the New York City weather board is the one that qualifies.
Questions readers ask
How do New York weather prediction markets work?
An exchange lists one contract for each band of a reading, such as a daily high of 74 to 75 degrees, and the band holding the official reading pays in full while every other band pays nothing. The bands are laid out in order, so a whole row reads as one distribution rather than as a set of unrelated questions.
Which New York cities have weather prediction markets?
New York City is the one with a board, and its daily high, daily low and monthly rainfall ladders sit on the New York City weather page. Another New York city appears here once an exchange opens a daily ladder for it, which is the exchange's decision rather than this site's.
How do New York weather markets settle?
On one published measurement taken at the station the contract names, never on a forecast and never on an average of several stations. Which station that is belongs to the contract rather than to the city: on the New York City ladders here Polymarket reads LaGuardia for temperature and Kalshi reads Central Park, and both read Central Park for rain.
Is a weather prediction market a forecast?
No. A forecast is a meteorologist's estimate of what the weather will do, while the price on a band is what buyers and sellers will pay for the contract covering it, and the two can disagree by a wide margin. The contract settles on what the station measured, not on how well anyone forecast it.
Are weather prediction markets legal in New York?
This page takes no position. New York's filings and the orders entered on them are listed with their dates on the legal status page, which is read again when the record moves.