Polymarket
KalshiMalliotakis Has Widened Her Margin Every Cycle Since 2020, and the Price Charges Only for a National Swing
NY-11 House race odds price Staten Island's congressional seat as a Republican hold, and what the price rests on is a margin that has grown in each of the last three elections rather than any single fact about this campaign. Nicole Malliotakis won the seat by six points in 2020, by more than 23 in 2022 and by 28 in 2024, and the Board of Elections in the City of New York lists her on the Republican and Conservative lines again for November 3, 2026, against Democrat Mike DeCillis. Richmond County's ballot carries no other House contest, and part of Brooklyn votes in the race too. Both venues that price the seat put the Republican side far ahead; the question the board leaves open is how much a national swing could take off a lead that size.
What the NY-11 price is built on
Start with the record rather than the board. Malliotakis took the seat from a sitting Democrat, Max Rose, on November 3, 2020 by 53.1% to 46.8% on 293,314 votes. Two years later, on November 8, 2022, she beat Rose again by 61.7% to 38.2%, and on November 5, 2024 she beat Andrea Morse by 63.8% to 35.8% on 261,728 votes. All three results are certified. The trend is the point: a member who won her first race by a little over six points has since won by more than four times that.
The partisan numbers underneath the House results point the same way. Ballotpedia's race page, as it stood on October 23, 2026, gives the district a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10, which makes it the 118th most Republican seat in the country, and records a 2024 presidential result inside the district of 61.3% for Donald Trump against 36.9% for Kamala Harris. A seat where the presidential nominee and the House member both run above 60% is not one where the challenger needs a small shift; it needs a large one.
The market prices that record, and on October 23, 2026 it priced it slightly less firmly than earlier in the month. Kalshi had the Republican contract at 92%, the best price on that side (Polymarket had 93%), and Polymarket had the Democratic contract at 7% (Kalshi had 8%). On October 5, 2026 the best Republican price had been Polymarket's 95% and the best Democratic price Polymarket's 5%. What the price is saying is that a three-cycle trend and a double-digit partisan lean leave the Democratic side in single digits, and that the three points the Republican contract gave back this month came without any change in the ratings or the polling record to explain them.
The challenger and the money
DeCillis reached the ballot through a contested primary. He beat Allison Ziogas in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary by 61.4% to 37.1%, on 10,455 votes to 6,309, a certified result on a turnout of 17,014. The Republican and Conservative primaries were canceled because Malliotakis had no opponent in either, which is how a sitting member usually reaches November in a seat like this one.
The campaign accounts are lopsided in a way that matches the price. The Federal Election Commission's summary for Malliotakis's committee, covering January 1, 2025 through October 14, 2026, shows $3.32M in receipts, $1.87M spent and $2.79M in cash on hand, with $1.33M of the receipts from other political committees. The newest FEC summary for DeCillis covers January 1 through September 30, 2026 and shows $155.5K raised and $86.1K in cash on hand. The FEC notes that a newly filed report can take up to 48 hours to appear in those summaries, so the challenger's pre-general figures may still land; on the numbers available on October 23, 2026, the incumbent had raised about twenty times as much.
Outside groups have stayed almost entirely out of the race. Ballotpedia's satellite-spending table, drawn from FEC filings, shows about $3.5K spent against Malliotakis by a single PAC and nothing spent for either candidate. Outside spending is where national party committees and allied groups show which seats they think can move, and a few thousand dollars against a sitting member is close to none; that silence is one more reason the board sits where it does.
What the forecasters say
The four outlets Ballotpedia follows agree on this race. As of the October 20, 2026 update, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections had NY-11 at Solid Republican, and Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk had it at Safe Republican, with no outlet changing its rating since July 21, 2026. Cook has rated the seat Solid Republican since February 11, 2025, the first entry in its history for the race.
That agreement is the clearest outside check on the price. A Republican contract in the low nineties is a little less confident than four Safe or Solid ratings would suggest on their own, and the gap is the margin a market charges for anything it cannot rule out. Ballotpedia lists no public poll of the race, so the board has no direct survey of NY-11 voters to react to.
How the NY-11 contracts trade
The money on the board runs the other way from the price, as it often does on a lopsided contract. By October 23, 2026 Kalshi's Democratic NY-11 contract had traded about 24,600 contracts against about 13,800 on the Republican one, and Polymarket's Democratic line had drawn about $27.8K against $18.3K on the Republican line. Most of the recent activity sat on the favored side: in the 24 hours to that reading, Kalshi's Republican contract traded about 590 contracts while the Democratic one traded about 11, and Polymarket's event did about $612 in total. The book is deep enough that a single order does not set the quote: Polymarket's event carried about $86.6K of resting liquidity on October 23, 2026.
The two venues agree within a point on both sides, which is about the width of their spreads. Polymarket also lists lines for another party and several unnamed placeholders; none had traded by October 23, 2026.
The case against the NY-11 read
The strongest case against reading the record forward is that the Republican price has already started to move without any of the usual reasons. It fell from Polymarket's 95% on October 5, 2026 to Kalshi's 92% on October 23 while every forecaster held its rating and no poll was published. On that reading, the money is pricing the national environment rather than this district: a wave large enough to move many seats at once would also be the one thing capable of eroding a 28-point margin, and three points of give is the market beginning to charge for it. A trend built across three elections can also stall; the 2022 and 2024 results were the second and third outings of a sitting member, and a district whose presidential vote is ten points right of the country can still swing by more than its House member's record suggests.
The other case is that the gap in money is less decisive than it looks. A challenger with under $100K in the bank and an incumbent with nearly $2.8M on hand describe two campaigns, not one electorate, and a seat that saw a sitting member lose in 2020 has shown it can turn.
What changes the NY-11 read
The read changes if any of the following arrives before the count, and each one has a date or a public record behind it.
October 24, 2026: early voting opens and runs through November 1, and the voter registration deadline falls the same day. A district with a settled record either shows unusual engagement in that window or does not.
The pre-general campaign reports: Malliotakis's figures through October 14 are already in the FEC summary; DeCillis's newest summary stops at September 30, 2026. A late surge in the challenger's receipts, or a first outside group spending to help him, would be the earliest sign that anyone with money sees a race.
A rating move or a first poll: all four outlets have held their Safe or Solid ratings since July 21, 2026, and no public poll is listed. Either changing is the cleanest external signal that the read has broken.
The Republican price itself: if it keeps slipping without a rating move or a poll behind it, the market is pricing a national swing rather than this seat, and the residual for the Democratic side stops being a formality.
November 3, 2026: the count.
When the NY-11 market resolves
Neither venue settles on a person. Kalshi's KXHOUSERACE-NY11-26 pair, open since January 7, 2026, pays on the party of the House member sworn in for NY-11 for the term beginning in 2027, may settle early once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and lists an expected expiration of January 4, 2027. Polymarket's NY-11 House Election Winner contracts pay on the party of the candidate who wins the seat, read from ballot-listed affiliation once all 2026 House races are conclusively called, and fall back to the official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if credible reporting is ambiguous. The candidate names attached to the contracts are labels; settlement reads the party.
Related NY-11 and New York markets
Brooklyn's ballot also carries NY-10, the other end of the city's partisan range, where the contract was settled in practice by a June primary rather than by November. The state's closest House contract is NY-17, a Republican seat the market prices as a Democratic pickup, and NY-18 is the Democratic mirror image of this page: a seat whose member has widened his margin while the district's partisan lean stays close to even. The governor's race is on the same ballot. The politics board carries the rest of the state's contracts, the elections hub follows the November 3, 2026 calendar, and how to read a probability explains what a price in the low nineties is and is not saying.
