New York Economy Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
New York economy prediction markets are contracts on published numbers, the state's gas average and the city's rent index among them. Each settles on the figure its publisher prints, not an opinion about it.
Top markets
By volume · the three largest as cards, the rest as rowsAll markets →New York Gas Prices Odds 2026
New York City Billionaires Odds 2026
New York City Rent Increase Odds 2026
Price is the New York side’s figure, the mean of the books quoting it · 24h in points, — under a point · Field = the whole-field leader, the other quoted side, or the rungs either side of the line
Reporting
3 stories · newest firstAll New York news →
Local newsNew York Has Not Had to Answer Ludlow Exchange Yet, and Its First Required Brief Is Due September 10
Judge Colleen McMahon denied the exchange's restraining order on August 11, 2026 without asking the state to respond, which makes the brief now due September 10 New York's first substantive filing in the case.
Photo: Ken Lund / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0
Local newsThe Next Courtroom Test of New York's Gambling Law Comes on September 14, and Kalshi Is Not the Plaintiff
Judge Lorna G. Schofield set argument on the exchange's injunction motion for 11:00 A.M. on September 14, 2026, which means the state's enforcement powers get tested by a plaintiff that is not Kalshi.
Photo: Ajay Suresh / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0
Local newsThe Only Question Argued in New York's Kalshi Case Is Which Courthouse Hears It
Briefing closed on August 28, 2026 on the state's motion to send the case back to New York County, which leaves the Attorney General's petition unargued while a federal judge decides where it belongs.
Photo: Beyond My Ken / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Top New York Economy Markets
The economy contracts written on New York are threshold ladders: a row of rungs on one published number, each asking whether the figure clears its own level, so the set reads as a range rather than a single call. The gas ladder is a running maximum on AAA's New York average for regular gasoline: a rung settles the first time the state average passes it before December 31, 2026, and the rungs start above $4.80 in twenty-cent steps. The rent ladder asks what the StreetEasy Rental Index for all bedrooms in New York City does over the year to December 2026, in whole-percentage steps. The billionaire ladder counts down from the 123 names Forbes printed beside the city in its 2025 cities list. Each keeps its own page: New York gas prices, New York City rent increase and New York City billionaires.
What Moves New York Economy Markets
Publication dates, and between them what the next release is expected to say. AAA prints a New York average every day, so the gas ladder can settle a rung on a single morning's reading and nothing else resolves it. StreetEasy publishes its rental index monthly, and the reading that settles the rent ladder is December 2026's, released in the first days of January. Forbes publishes its cities list once a year and only the first published version counts, so that ladder's clock is a publication date rather than a wealth estimate. A methodology change at any of the three moves what a contract pays without the economy underneath it moving. New York's own statistical calendar runs alongside: the Bureau of Labor Statistics prints state employment and unemployment on the federal release schedule, a preliminary figure first and a revision later, and the Office of the State Comptroller reports on the state's funds.
Why New York Economy Prediction Markets
A forecast is an opinion with a name on it; a prediction market is a price with money behind it. Each rung is a binary contract, Yes or No on one stated level, and its price reads as the implied probability that the number clears it. That puts the cost of a tank of gas on the same scale as an election, and a price that moves before a release says the expectation changed, not the figure. Settlement is what keeps it honest, and here it repays reading twice: the deciding number usually belongs to a private publisher rather than a statistical agency. AAA, StreetEasy and Forbes each define what they measure and can change that definition, which is why a page here names the source agency and the period first. This desk publishes no estimate of its own.
Sources 7 · as the record cites them
- Kalshi contract terms, AAAGASMINMAX, the rules behind the New York gas ladder — assets.kalshi.com · primary ·
- Kalshi series KXAAAGASMAXNY, the rungs of the 2026 New York gas event — api.elections.kalshi.com · primary ·
- Kalshi contract terms, NYCRENTS, the rules behind the New York City rent ladder — assets.kalshi.com · primary ·
- Kalshi contract terms, CITYBILLIONAIRES, the rules behind the city billionaire count — assets.kalshi.com · primary ·
- Kalshi series KXNYCBILLIONAIRES, the rungs of the 2026 event — api.elections.kalshi.com · primary ·
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York State unemployment rate (LASST360000000000003) — data.bls.gov · primary ·
- Office of the New York State Comptroller, first-quarter report on the Common Retirement Fund — osc.ny.gov · primary ·
Questions readers ask
How do economic prediction markets work?
An economic contract names a published figure and a level, and it settles at full value if the release clears that level and at nothing if it does not. Most New York economy contracts are ladders, several rungs on one number at different levels, so their prices read as a range rather than a single yes-or-no call. The source agency named in the contract terms, AAA on the gas ladder, settles it.
Which New York economic numbers have prediction markets?
The published series a contract is written on here are AAA's average price for regular gasoline in New York, the StreetEasy Rental Index for all bedrooms in New York City, and the New York City figure in Forbes' annual list of the cities with the most billionaires. Other New York numbers of the same kind include the state employment and unemployment prints from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
How do New York economy markets settle?
On the publisher's own print for the stated period. A gas rung settles the first time AAA's New York average passes its level before December 31, 2026; the rent ladder settles on the StreetEasy index reading for December 2026, released early in January; and the billionaire ladder settles on the first published version of the Forbes cities list, with revisions made after expiration ignored.
Where can I trade New York economy markets?
Kalshi. It is the only exchange pricing the gas, rent and billionaire ladders written on New York, so every figure on those pages comes from one book rather than from a consensus of venues. Where a second exchange lists the same question, the page names both.
Are economic prediction markets legal in New York?
Standing is answered by the record and not by this hub. The legal status page holds the New York filings and the orders entered on them, each carrying its own date, and it is read again when the record moves.