New York politics prediction markets here are contracts on New York's own ballot: the statewide executive and the seats the state sends to Congress. Each settles on a party, never on a person.
| Race | Leading | Kalshi | Polymarket | Move | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th DistrictClose race: neither side at 65% | Democratic Party | 60%-150 | 59%-144 | down 1 points over 7d | |
| GovernorNew York Governor Odds 2026 | Democratic Party | 97%-3233 | 97%-3233 | up 3 points over 7d | |
| 1st DistrictNew York 1st District Odds 2026 | Republican Party | 81%-426 | 81%-426 | up 4 points over 7d |
Kalshi had a Democratic hold at 96% on October 29, 2026, a point above its price before Siena's poll, which means the exchanges were already surer of a Hochul win than the 68% of voters who expect one.
New York Predictions staff ·
| Portrait | Person | Named in | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| AD | Antonio DelgadoLieutenant Governor of New York | Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? — Yes 2% | In office since |
| KH | Kathy HochulGovernor of New York | New York Governor Odds 2026 — Yes 97% · 4 more · 7 stories | In office since |
| ZM | Zohran MamdaniMayor of New York City | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% · 19 more · 1 story | In office since |
| AO | Alexandria Ocasio-CortezUnited States Representative for New York's 14th congressional district | 2028 Democratic VP nominee — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 10% · 4 more | In office since |
| CS | Chuck SchumerUnited States Senator from New York | Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader? — Yes 12% · 2 more | In office since |
| JT | Jessica TischNew York City Police Commissioner | Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? — Jessica Tisch 21% · 2 more · 1 story | In office since |
Two contract types carry this vertical, and both are party contracts rather than candidate contracts. The statewide race for governor is much the deeper of the two on Kalshi, where about 995,100 contracts had traded on it by September 2, 2026. Sitting with the governor's race is a companion written on the same election, a statewide turnout contract, which asks a narrower question about a result the headline contract prices. The district contracts are written one seat at a time rather than as a slate, out of the 26 the state sends to Congress, because a Long Island district and an upstate district answer to different electorates. The board above orders the field by the past day of trading, so a quiet seat slides down rather than off it. The race pages sit at /elections and the officeholders at /people.
The Board of Elections calendar is the clock. The Board certified the offices on the ballot on July 31, 2026. Early voting runs from October 24 to November 1, 2026, October 24 is also the last day to register, the general election falls on November 3, 2026, and the county recanvass follows on November 18, 2026. The calendar carries its own caveat, printed on the document: the dates are subject to change by the State Legislature. Between those dates a party contract reprices on ballot access, on withdrawals and substitutions, on filings with the Board and on the ordinary business of a campaign. This page names no candidate. The certified candidate list is a separate Board filing that is not in the record behind these pages, so no nominee appears on any of them.
A poll reports a sample and a prediction market reports a price. Each contract here is binary, a Yes and a No on one party holding one office, and the price between them reads as the implied probability of that outcome. It moves continuously rather than on a fieldwork schedule, and a second exchange pricing the same seat gives another book to read against. Settlement is the state's own record: Kalshi pays Yes on a governor contract for the party whose representative is inaugurated pursuant to the 2026 election, and on a district contract for the party of the member sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, closing early once certified results are published; both expire on November 3, 2027. Polymarket resolves the same district events on the party winning the general election, with an event end date of November 4, 2026.
A political contract asks whether one stated outcome happens and settles at full value on Yes and at nothing on No once the result is official. What the yes side last traded at is the market's reading of that outcome, revised by trading rather than by a single poll. The New York contracts here are written on the party that takes an office, not on a person.
The offices New York's own voters fill on November 3, 2026, which the State Board of Elections certified in an amended filing dated July 31, 2026: governor and lieutenant governor, comptroller, attorney general, and every congressional, State Senate and Assembly seat.
On the certified result rather than on a call made on election night. Kalshi pays Yes on the party whose representative is inaugurated as governor pursuant to the 2026 election, or sworn in for a House term beginning in 2027, and Polymarket resolves a district on the party winning on November 3, 2026.
Kalshi and Polymarket both carry contracts on New York's 2026 races. The two word their settlement differently, so a page here names the venue behind every figure it reports and never blends two venues into one number.
This hub states no conclusion on standing. What has been asked of the courts and what they have ordered on New York's record is set out on the legal status page, entry by entry with dates, and reviewed again after each new filing.