New York Elections Prediction Markets & 2026 Odds
New York elections prediction markets are organised here around the ballot, not around a candidate: statewide offices first, then the congressional seats in district order. Certification by the State Board of Elections settles them.
The ballot
8 races priced · the first 3 as cards, the rest as rows, in ballot orderPolitics, by volume →New York Governor Odds 2026
New York QSBS Tax Decoupling Odds 2026
New York 1st District Odds 2026
| Race | Quoted sides | Price | 24h | Other side | Volume | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. House 5 races priced · ballot order · one is a card above | ||||||
| New York 4th District Odds 20264th District · 2 outcomes · 2 venues | Democratic Party 94%No 8% | 94%-1567 | — | No 8%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $19K$760 24h | No date servedvote |
| New York 10th District Odds 202610th District · 2 outcomes · 2 venues | Democratic Party 100%No 3% | 100%-19900 | — | No 3%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $73Kno 24h volume served | No date servedvote |
| New York 17th District Odds 202617th District · 2 outcomes · 2 venues | Democratic Party 59%No 42% | 59%-141 | — | No 42%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $98K$415 24h | No date servedvote |
| New York 21st District Odds 202621st District · 2 outcomes · 2 venues | Republican Party 76%No 26% | 76%-308 | down 3 points over 24h | No 26%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $124K$738 24h | No date servedvote |
| Local 1 race priced · ballot order | ||||||
| New York City Congestion Pricing Odds 2027Congestion Pricing · New York City · 2 outcomes · Kalshi | Yes 8%No 98% | 8%+1150 | — | No 98%quoted, not 1 − Yes | $1Kno 24h volume served | Jan 1, 2027vote |
Ballot order, not money order: statewide offices first, then the seats as the ballot lists them · each row shows both quoted sides — the second is its own quote, never 1 − price · vote dates come from each page’s settlement text
People
Officeholders a New York contract namesAll people →| Portrait | Person | Named in | Since |
|---|---|---|---|
| AD | Antonio DelgadoLieutenant Governor of New York | Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? (on Prediction Genius) ↗ — names them, does not price them · Yes 1% | In office since |
| KH | Kathy HochulGovernor of New York | New York Governor Odds 2026 — names them, does not price them · Democratic Party 92% · 1 more · 1 story | In office since |
| ZM | Zohran MamdaniMayor of New York City | Will Mamdani freeze the rent in 2026? (on Prediction Genius) ↗ — names them, does not price them · Yes 87% · 19 more | In office since |
| AO | Alexandria Ocasio-CortezUnited States Representative for New York's 14th congressional district | Who will AOC endorse? (on Prediction Genius) ↗ — names them, does not price them · Claire Valdez in NY-07 before Nov 3, 2026 74% · 4 more | In office since |
| CS | Chuck SchumerUnited States Senator from New York | Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader? (on Prediction Genius) ↗ — names them, does not price them · Yes 14% · 2 more | In office since |
| JT | Jessica TischNew York City Police Commissioner | Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? (on Prediction Genius) ↗ — names them, does not price them · Jessica Tisch 29% · 2 more | In office since |
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Top New York Election Markets
Two shapes carry this vertical. The statewide party contract asks which party is inaugurated as governor after the November 3, 2026 election, and it is the largest book on the New York ballot: $1.0M in lifetime volume as of September 2, 2026, against $106.5K on the busiest of the congressional district contracts. Those district contracts are the second shape, written one seat at a time rather than as a slate, because a Long Island seat and a North Country seat answer to different electorates. Rows run statewide first, then the congressional seats in district order, then local races: the order follows the ballot, not a settlement calendar. A race page is the durable form of the question behind a contract: what is at stake, when it is decided and what the contract settles against. This vertical lists contracts, not offices: the Board certified far more than any exchange has written a question on. The contracts are catalogued at /markets and the vertical is framed at /politics.
What Moves New York Election Markets
A published calendar, first of all. The Board's amended certification, dated July 31, 2026, put governor and lieutenant governor, comptroller, attorney general and every congressional, State Senate and Assembly seat on the ballot. Early voting runs October 24 to November 1, 2026, and October 24 is the last day to register. The general election is November 3, 2026, and the county recanvass follows on November 18, 2026. The calendar carries its own caveat, printed on the document: the State Legislature can change the dates. Between those fixed points it is filings that reprice a district question: a qualifying candidate, a withdrawal, a substitution. The certified candidate list is a separate Board filing that is not in the record behind these pages, so no nominee is named on this site until it is.
Why New York Election Prediction Markets
A poll asks a sample what it intends. A contract asks anyone holding a position what they will pay for the outcome, and prints the answer. Because the question is binary, that answer reads as an implied probability rather than a share with a margin of error. Resolution ends the argument: governor contracts settle on which party is inaugurated after the 2026 election rather than on any individual, district contracts on the party that wins the seat, and certification by the State Board of Elections is the settlement event, so an election-night projection is never a result here. The district questions are listed by both Kalshi and Polymarket; the statewide governor question was priced by Kalshi alone as of September 2, 2026, and that is stated rather than dressed up as consensus.
Questions readers ask
How do election prediction markets work?
An election contract asks a yes-or-no question about a result, most often which party takes an office, and it settles at its full value on Yes or at nothing on No once the count is certified. The last traded price is what the market implies about that result. The New York contracts are party questions, so no candidate has to be named for one to settle.
Which New York races are on the 2026 ballot?
The State Board of Elections certified the offices for November 3, 2026 in an amended filing dated July 31, 2026: governor and lieutenant governor, comptroller, attorney general, and every congressional, State Senate and Assembly seat. The ballot here runs the statewide offices first, then the U.S. House seats in district order.
How do New York election markets settle?
On certification by the State Board of Elections, not on a result called on the night. A statewide contract settles on the party whose representative is inaugurated after the November 3, 2026 election and a district contract on the party that takes the seat, with the county recanvass falling on November 18, 2026 before any count is final.
When can I vote in New York in 2026?
Election day is November 3, 2026. Early voting runs from October 24 to November 1, 2026, and October 24 is also the last day to register for that election, on a State Board of Elections calendar whose dates the State Legislature can change.
Are election prediction markets legal in New York?
This page draws no conclusion, and no race page does either. The legal status page sets out the New York filings and the orders entered on them, with the date each carries, and it is read again after every new filing.