New York's House Delegation Is Headed to 20-6, and the Three Closest Republican Seats Held

New York's House delegation is on track to change from 19 Democrats and 7 Republicans to 20 Democrats and 6 Republicans after the November 3, 2026 election, with one seat changing party: the 17th district in the Lower Hudson Valley, where Republican Representative Mike Lawler conceded to Democrat Cait Conley. That is the split the State Board of Elections' unofficial results show if every current lead holds, as compiled by New York Focus and last updated at 10:22 p.m. on November 4, 2026. NBC News had not projected four of the races, the three closest Republican-held seats and NY-17, as of 9:58 a.m. on November 5, 2026, while it had projected NY-3, NY-4, NY-11, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22, NY-23 and NY-24.

The three uncalled Republican seats are where the delegation count could still move, and all three show the Republican ahead. In NY-1 on eastern Long Island, Representative Nick LaLota led Democrat Christopher Gallant 152,546 to 145,869 with 560 of 561 election districts reporting. In NY-2 on the South Shore, Representative Andrew Garbarino led Democrat Patrick Halpin 124,271 to 118,680 with 521 of 527 reporting. In NY-21, the North Country seat Representative Elise Stefanik is leaving, Republican Anthony Constantino led Democrat Blake Gendebien 140,119 to 134,390 with every district reporting. All of these figures are unofficial and exclude absentee, affidavit and military ballots counted after election night.

How the delegation changes, seat by seat

The current delegation, according to the House Clerk's member list on November 5, 2026, is 19 Democrats and 7 Republicans. The Republicans hold NY-1, NY-2, NY-11, NY-17, NY-21, NY-23 and NY-24. In the unofficial count, Republicans lead in six of those seven: LaLota, Garbarino, Representative Nicole Malliotakis in NY-11, Constantino in NY-21, Representative Nicholas Langworthy in NY-23 and Representative Claudia Tenney in NY-24. The seventh is NY-17, where Conley led Lawler 137,005 to 125,617 with Westchester County's Election Day ballots still being counted after a scanner programming error.

No Democratic seat is at risk in the count. Every Democratic incumbent who was on the ballot led, and the closest Democratic-held race was NY-3 on the North Shore, where Representative Thomas Suozzi led Republican Michael LiPetri 141,870 to 115,330, a margin NBC News had projected. Representatives Laura Gillen in NY-4, Pat Ryan in NY-18, Josh Riley in NY-19 and John Mannion in NY-22 were all projected winners on NBC's pages by the morning of November 5.

Several seats will have new members without changing party. In the unofficial count, Democrats Claire Valdez led in NY-7, Brad Lander in NY-10, Micah Lasher in NY-12 and Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13, four districts whose current members, according to the House Clerk, are Representatives Nydia Velázquez, Daniel Goldman, Jerrold Nadler and Adriano Espaillat. NBC had projected Lander's race. Constantino in NY-21 would be the fifth new member from the same party, and Conley the only one from the other.

What the markets priced in the three uncalled seats

The House markets on these three seats all priced a Republican hold going in, with different degrees of confidence, and the closest result came in the seat the market doubted most. On November 2, 2026, Polymarket had the Republican Party at 79% to hold NY-1, the cheapest Yes on that side, against 80% on Kalshi. Kalshi had Republicans at 88% to hold NY-2, with Polymarket at 89%. And Kalshi had Republicans at 69% to hold NY-21, with Polymarket at 70%, the weakest Republican price of the three.

The counts track those prices loosely rather than exactly. NY-21, the seat priced at 69%, finished with a lead of 5,729 votes, about two points. NY-1, priced at 79%, finished with a lead of 6,677, also about two points. NY-2, priced most firmly at 88%, has the smallest raw lead of the three at 5,591 votes but the smallest electorate too, and a margin of about 2.3 points. What the prices were saying is that all three were Republican seats that could be lost in a strong Democratic year, and a strong Democratic year arrived: NBC News's House projections on November 5, 2026 had Democrats winning control of the chamber with 259 seats. In New York, the wave took one Republican seat rather than four.

The three markets drew real but uneven trading. By November 5, 2026, about 762,100 contracts had traded on Kalshi's NY-1 contracts and about $173K on Polymarket's, about 533,300 contracts and $166K on NY-21, and about 393,100 contracts and $38K on NY-2. NY-21 drew nearly as much Polymarket money as NY-1 in an open seat, which fits a race the market treated as the most uncertain of the three.

On November 5, 2026, the boards read as near-certainty on the Republican side in all three: Kalshi had Republicans at 98% in NY-1 and 99% in NY-21, and Polymarket had them at 97% in NY-2, which means the venues now treat the unofficial leads as the result. None of the three has settled: Kalshi's contracts resolve on the party of the member sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, and the exchange's data showed all three still active on November 5, with scheduled expirations of January 4, 2027.

What the candidates have said

In NY-21, the race has a public result even without a call. Constantino declared victory shortly after 11 p.m. on election night at his company's factory in Amsterdam, and Gendebien issued a statement that said, "This isn't the outcome we worked for," adding, "I wish Anthony Constantino well in Congress," according to the Times Union. The district had voted for President Donald Trump by 21 points in 2024, Spectrum News reported.

In NY-1 and NY-2 the margins are similar and the races remained uncalled on the morning of November 5, 2026. LaLota and Garbarino are both incumbents, and their leads of 6,677 and 5,591 votes are what the absentee, affidavit and military ballots counted after election night would have to overturn.

The rest of the state

The two Republican incumbents upstate won comfortably in the unofficial count: Langworthy led Aaron Gies 181,807 to 119,749 in NY-23 and Tenney led Alissa Ellman 171,460 to 112,261 in NY-24, both projected by NBC. Malliotakis led Mike DeCillis 101,719 to 79,370 in the Staten Island-based NY-11, also projected. Those three seats, plus the three uncalled ones, make up the six-member Republican side of a 20-6 delegation if every lead holds.

The same unofficial count gave Democrats leads in every district they now hold, from Gregory Meeks in NY-5 and Hakeem Jeffries in NY-8 in the city to Paul Tonko in NY-20, Joseph Morelle in NY-25 and Timothy Kennedy in NY-26 upstate. The Democratic side of the delegation grows only through NY-17.

What happens next

Three steps remain before the delegation is fixed. Westchester's Election Day ballots, counted from November 4 under a court-approved procedure, will be added to NY-16 and NY-17. Absentee, affidavit and military ballots counted after election night will be added everywhere, and the races NBC News had not projected by November 5, NY-1, NY-2, NY-17 and NY-21, will be called on those totals. Then the State Board of Elections certifies the results and the new members are sworn in for the term beginning in January 2027, which is what every House contract on the board resolves on.

The NY-21 market page carries the live board for Stefanik's open seat, and the NY-1 and NY-2 pages cover the two Long Island holds. The flipped seat has its own story, Lawler's concession in NY-17, and every race is on elections.