The Mets Lead the Skubal Board Before They Have Met Him, on a Kind of Deal Stearns Has Never Made

The Mets are favored to sign Tarik Skubal before they have sat down with him. On November 13, 2026, Kalshi, the only exchange pricing where the two-time Cy Young Award winner signs, had the Mets at 62% and the Los Angeles Dodgers, the club he finished the 2026 season with, at 16%, which puts the Mets Skubal odds at about three chances in five ahead of a meeting that has not happened yet.

ESPN reported on November 11, 2026, that the Mets are scheduled to meet Skubal, the prize of this offseason's free-agent class, in California the following week, and on November 13 it described the Mets as the industry favorites to land him. David Stearns, the Mets' president of baseball operations, declined to comment on the pursuit at the general managers' meetings in Las Vegas. It is a New York story because the rotation the market is pricing is the Mets': ESPN reported that the club views only Nolan McLean and Christian Scott as locks for its 2027 rotation.

The question this piece answers is whether a scheduled meeting and a thin rotation are enough to justify a price that already treats New York as more likely than not to win the bidding. The Mets team page carries the club's boards; the Skubal market has no New York page of its own, so the live board sits above this story.

What the Mets Skubal number says

Kalshi is the only exchange pricing this contract, so 62% is one venue's read rather than a consensus. Behind the Mets and the Dodgers, Kalshi had the Los Angeles Angels at 6%, the San Diego Padres and a "retires or no team" outcome at 5% each, the Toronto Blue Jays at 3%, and the Yankees at 2%, level with eight other clubs, all as of November 13, 2026. Read plainly, the exchange treats every club but the Mets as a long shot and the Dodgers as the only rival priced above one chance in ten, which goes further than the reporting: ESPN called the Mets the industry favorites, and the exchange prices them as more likely than not to finish the job.

The trading behind that price is thinner than the number suggests. The board had traded about 300,000 contracts by November 13, 2026, about 63,000 of them in the previous 24 hours, but only about 32,700 had gone on the Mets outcome, fewer than the roughly 36,900 traded on the Angels, a club neither ESPN report names among Skubal's meetings. That means the 62% was set by less trading on the favorite than on an outsider, and a price built that way can move a long way on one piece of news.

Why the market leans toward Queens

The case for the Mets starts with need. They finished 2026 at 74-88, fifth in the National League East, according to MLB's official standings, and missed the postseason for a second straight year. McLean posted a 3.16 ERA in 31 starts as a rookie and Scott a 3.70 ERA in 23, ESPN reported, but behind them the rotation is a list of question marks: Sean Manaea's 4.78 ERA, Kodai Senga's move to the bullpen and Tylor Megill's return from Tommy John surgery. "Having a complete rotation is really important, and that includes having pitchers who can successfully get you through a postseason, get you through a playoff series," Stearns said at the meetings.

The second reason is money and room. ESPN described owner Steve Cohen's resources as the reason the Mets are an obvious landing spot, and, citing Cot's Baseball Contracts, it reported that the Mets have less committed to their 2028 payroll than the Dodgers, which matters because a salary cap could arrive as early as 2028 under the next collective bargaining agreement. Skubal is the pitcher those factors point at. He went 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA in 158 2/3 innings in 2026, 7-5 with a 2.79 ERA for Detroit and 5-2 with a 2.61 ERA for the Dodgers after the deadline trade, according to MLB's statistics, and he won the American League Cy Young Award in 2024 and 2025. He turns 30 on November 20, 2026.

The case against the Mets as favorites

The strongest argument against the price is the man doing the buying. ESPN reported that Stearns has never signed a pitcher to a long-term contract in his front-office career in Milwaukee or New York, that he has been averse to long deals for pitchers in their early 30s, and that his pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto in his first Mets offseason ended with Yamamoto choosing the Dodgers. On long pitching contracts, Stearns said, "Every situation is unique," and that "we do have to look at every individual pitcher on a case-by-case basis." A reader who doubts the 62% would say that is a club keeping its options open, not one that has decided.

The size of the deal sharpens that doubt. ESPN reported that Skubal is widely expected to set the records for average annual value and total value for a full-time pitcher, which is exactly the kind of commitment Stearns has avoided. And the Mets' list does not stop at the rotation: ESPN reported they also want to rebuild a bullpen after trading four veteran relievers at the deadline, including at least one left-hander, and to add a right-handed-hitting first baseman to platoon with Jared Young. A club spreading its winter across that many holes is not certain to put the largest pitching contract in its history at the top of the list.

The Dodgers are the second argument. They traded three prospects to Detroit for Skubal at the deadline, and general manager Brandon Gomes said his club expects to meet him in the coming days. "I know that he enjoyed his time here," Gomes said. "We loved having him." Toronto and San Diego are scheduled to meet him too, according to ESPN and the Associated Press. The third is the arm: Skubal missed six weeks in 2026 after an arthroscopic procedure to remove a loose body from his left elbow, his third arm operation since Tommy John surgery in 2017, with flexor tendon surgery in 2022. A cautious buyer has reasons to bid short, and a short bid is how a favorite loses a free agent.

What would change the Mets Skubal read

Catalysts: the Mets' meeting with Skubal in California, which ESPN reported for the week after the general managers' meetings; the Dodgers' meeting "in the coming days"; the Toronto and San Diego meetings; and the first reported offer from any of them. For the other New York club on the board, the Yankees' first decision of the winter is whether closer David Bednar accepts the qualifying offer by the November 17 deadline, ESPN reported.

Invalidation: This read is wrong if the Mets sign another front-line starter to a multiyear deal before Skubal chooses, or if the first reported offer after the meetings comes from the Dodgers or the Blue Jays rather than the Mets. Either would mean the 62% was pricing Cohen's payroll rather than the club's plan, and the board should fall on that news; if it does not, the exchange is reading something the reporting has not shown.

The next dated beat is Skubal's 30th birthday on November 20, 2026, the week the Mets' meeting is scheduled, and Kalshi lists March 25, 2027, as the market's resolution date. How the 2026 season ended for the Mets is on the Mets playoff market page.