Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
Polymarket
Kalshi
New England Patriots
Miami DolphinsBuffalo Leads the AFC East by a Game, and New England Holds the Tiebreak
The Bills AFC East odds rest on the loss column rather than on the head-to-head: Buffalo is 4-1 and a game clear of New England at 3-2, and the market treats that cushion as worth more than the Patriots' 29-26 win at Orchard Park on October 4, which is the only division game either club has played. The AFC East is a New York question twice over. The Buffalo Bills play at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, and the New York Jets carry the state's name and play their home games at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey; the Jets sit third at 2-3. Each club has twelve games left, and the last of them is listed for January 10, 2027.
Where the AFC East race stands after five games
Buffalo has won four of five. The Bills opened with a 36-31 win at Houston, beat Detroit 41-31 and the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16 at home, lost 29-26 to New England at Highmark Stadium on October 4, and then won 37-34 at the Los Angeles Rams on Monday, October 12. They have scored 164 points and allowed 141, so the record has come from an offense that keeps scoring rather than from a defense closing games out: four of the five were one-score games, decided by eight points or fewer.
New England is 3-2 with a narrower profile. The Patriots lost 13-10 at Seattle and 35-6 at Jacksonville, beat Pittsburgh 20-3 and Las Vegas 45-17 at Foxborough, and won the one game that matters most to this board. They have scored 110 and allowed 94. Below them the gap opens: the Jets are 2-3 after wins at Tennessee and at home against Cleveland, and Miami is 0-5, outscored 132 to 70.
The standings also carry last season's ordering, which is part of why the price is not wider. New England won the division in 2025 at 14-3, going 5-1 inside it, and Buffalo finished 12-5 and reached the playoffs as the sixth seed. Miami was 7-10 and the Jets 3-14, without a division win. A reading of last year's table alone would put New England in front; the five games of 2026 have turned it around.
What the Bills AFC East price is saying
On October 16, 2026, Polymarket had the Bills at 65% and Kalshi had them at 67%, so the best price on Buffalo was Polymarket's 65%. Both venues had New England at 30%. What the price is saying is that Buffalo is a clear favorite, at roughly two chances in three, and that the Patriots' head-to-head win, though it gives them the first tiebreaker for now, has bought them a minority share of the division rather than parity.
The reason is arithmetic the venues can see. The NFL breaks a two-club division tie first on head-to-head record and then on record inside the division. The rematch is at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on December 6: a Buffalo win there splits the series and sends a tie to division record, while a New England win sweeps it and hands the Patriots the tiebreak outright. Until then the price is mostly about whether Buffalo can keep its one-game edge, which is why it rests on the loss column.
The schedules do not separate the two clubs much. Buffalo's twelve remaining opponents were a combined 33-27 after the games through October 15, counting the Jets and Miami twice each; New England's were 30-30. Buffalo's November runs Baltimore at home on November 1, Minnesota away on Monday, November 9, the Jets in East Rutherford on November 15, Miami at home on November 22 and Kansas City at Highmark Stadium on Thanksgiving night, November 26. New England's road includes Chicago on Thursday, October 22, Detroit in Munich on November 15 and Kansas City on December 21.
The Jets in the AFC East board
The Jets are a long way back, and the market prices them that way. On October 16, 2026, Polymarket had the Jets at 2% and Kalshi had them at 4%, a gap that matters on a contract this small because the Polymarket figure is half of Kalshi's. The best price, 2% on Polymarket, treats New York's second club as a team that would have to win most of its six division games, starting at New England on October 18, to be in the race at all.
They are not mathematically far off: 2-3 is two games behind Buffalo with twelve to play, and the Jets still face both of the leaders twice. What the board is pricing is the gap in quality the 2025 table showed, when New York scored 300 points and allowed 503, against five games of 2026 in which the Jets have scored 93 points and allowed 96. Their division games are New England on October 18 and December 27, Miami on October 25 and November 29, and Buffalo on November 15 at MetLife Stadium and on January 10, 2027 at Highmark Stadium, the one Jets game this season played in New York State.
Miami, at 0-5, carries the smallest price on the board, 0.9% on Polymarket against 1% on Kalshi, both on October 16, 2026. A club that has lost every game is priced as a mathematical possibility and nothing more.
Where the money sits on the AFC East board
About 391,000 Buffalo contracts had traded on Kalshi since the board opened on February 10, 2026, against about 202,000 for the Jets, 178,000 for New England and 92,000 for Miami. Polymarket's AFC East event had matched $59.8K, more than half of it, $36.7K, on the Bills line. The Jets figure on Kalshi is the odd one in that list, heavier than New England's on a contract now priced in single digits; lifetime volume records how much a contract has been traded since February, not what the market thinks it is worth now.
The case against the AFC East read
The strongest case against the current price is that the market is paying for Buffalo's record and discounting the only evidence that has actually settled anything. New England went into Orchard Park on October 4 and won, already holds the first tiebreaker, and won this division last season by two games at 14-3. On that view the 30% both venues had on the Patriots on October 16, 2026 treats a one-game gap with twelve games to play as nearly decisive, when a single swing week, a Buffalo loss and a Patriots win on the same Sunday, erases it, and the December 6 rematch is at Foxborough.
A reader who holds that view would add that Buffalo's wins have been close and high-scoring. Four of the five were one-score games, and the Bills have allowed 141 points, more than New England's 94. A team winning shootouts by three points at Los Angeles and five at Houston is a team whose record is more fragile than its column suggests. The read is wrong if New England reaches December 6 level with or ahead of Buffalo, because the rematch would then decide the division with the Patriots already holding the tiebreak.
What changes the AFC East read
October 18, 2026: the Jets at New England, the Patriots' second division game and the Jets' first, with Buffalo at Las Vegas the same day. A New England win and a Buffalo loss would close the gap to nothing.
October 25, 2026: Buffalo's bye. New England plays at Chicago three days earlier, so for one week the Patriots can gain ground without Buffalo taking the field.
November 15 and November 26, 2026: the Bills at the Jets in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and Kansas City at Highmark Stadium on Thanksgiving night, the two games most likely to change Buffalo's margin before the rematch.
December 6, 2026: Buffalo at New England, which either splits the head-to-head series or gives the Patriots the tiebreak outright. The price after that game is the one that matters most.
January 10, 2027: the final weekend, with the Jets at Buffalo and Miami at New England, after which the market settles.
When the AFC East market resolves
The market pays on the club declared AFC East champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. Kalshi's KXNFLAFCEAST-27 contracts, open since February 10, 2026, are mutually exclusive, resolve Yes for the club that wins the division, and carry an expected expiration of January 11, 2027, the day after the season's last games, with a latest expiration of January 25. Polymarket's AFC East Champion market resolves on the declared division champion, applies the NFL's official tiebreaking procedure if two or more clubs finish level, uses official NFL information with a consensus of credible reporting as a fallback, and resolves to Other if the season is canceled or no champion is declared by 11:59 PM Eastern on January 17, 2027. Its Other line carried no volume on October 16, 2026. Playoff games do not count; the division is decided by the regular season alone.
Related New York football markets
The Bills playoff market prices whether Buffalo reaches the postseason at all, the floor beneath this contract, and the AFC championship board prices how far either New York club goes after it. The Jets win total sets out the season the market expects from New York's club in East Rutherford, and the Super Bowl board carries the title. Club pages for the Bills and the Jets sit with the rest of the state's teams on sports.
