A New York Gas Contract Settles on AAA's Statewide Morning Figure, Not Your Pump

A daily gas contract in one paragraph

A daily New York gas contract is a row of yes-or-no questions about a single number: the average price AAA reports for a gallon of regular gasoline across New York State on a named date. Each rung asks whether that average will be strictly greater than a set price, the rungs sit half a cent apart, and one morning's figure settles the whole row at once. Every rung below the figure pays Yes; the rung the figure lands on and every rung above it pay No. Take a board with rungs at $3.495, $3.500 and $3.505, and an AAA figure of $3.5020 for the date. The first two settle Yes and the third settles No. Those numbers are invented for the example, and no real board is quoted on this page.

How a daily gas contract settles step by step

1. Read the date as the day of the reading, not the day of the trading. Each rung of Kalshi's New York series carries the same sentence: if average regular gas prices for New York are strictly greater than the rung's price on the named date according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. The exchange's contract terms close trading at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on the day before that date. The board for November 7, 2026 was listed at 8 a.m. Eastern on November 6, so it traded for about sixteen hours, all of them before AAA had published the number the board settles on.

2. Take the figure from the page the exchange names, and only one line of it. The series lists a single settlement source, AAA's New York page on gasprices.aaa.com, and the terms name AAA as the only source agency. That page carries far more than one number: statewide averages for regular, mid-grade, premium and diesel, an average for each New York metro area beginning with Albany-Schenectady-Troy, a range of county prices and AAA's record high for the state. The contract reads the statewide average for regular, which AAA prints to four decimal places of a dollar. A station's sign, a county range and a metro average play no part in it.

3. Apply "strictly greater". A rung pays Yes only when the average is above its price. A figure that lands exactly on the line is not above it, so that rung settles No. With rungs half a cent apart and a figure printed to a hundredth of a cent, an exact tie is rare, but when it happens the rule sends it the same way every time.

4. Know when the figure is fixed. The terms define the settling figure as the value AAA documents on the expiration date at the expiration time, which is 10:15 a.m., 11:00 a.m. or 3:00 p.m. Eastern, and they move expiration earlier once AAA releases the data. The contracts for November 6, 2026 were finalized at 7:14 a.m. Eastern that morning, on the same statewide average AAA's page showed for regular that day. Settlement follows no later than the day after expiration.

5. Expect a late correction to change nothing, and know the fallback. A revision AAA makes after expiration is not counted; the figure documented at expiration stands. If AAA has no figure for the date at the expiration time, the terms settle the board on the last available day's data, so a missing morning does not leave the row unresolved.

6. Read neighboring rungs as one row. Every rung asks about the same figure, so the prices must fall as the rung's price rises. Say a contract half a cent below the last reading trades at 70% and the one half a cent above it at 30%. The forty points between them are what the row is paying for the average landing inside that one-cent band, and reading either rung alone throws the band away. The point where the prices pass even is the closest thing a daily board has to one expected figure.

Where New York readers stand

Nothing in a gas contract's terms says who may trade it from New York. That depends on the state's own record, the petitions, orders and regulator letters, and the date each one carries, all of it set out on the legal status page. This guide draws no conclusion about any exchange. It is not legal advice and not financial advice.

Common misreadings

The contract tracks the pump on your corner. It tracks one statewide average. The county ranges on AAA's own page show how far a single station can sit from it on the same morning.

The rung the figure lands on pays. It does not. The question is strictly greater than, so the line itself belongs to No.

Another survey can settle the board. Only AAA can. The terms name it as the sole source agency, so a weekly government series or a price app is context at most, never the settling figure.

The daily board and the year-long ladder ask the same question. They read the same AAA average and ask different things of it. A daily rung is about one date. The New York year-high gas market page follows rungs that pay Yes if the average is strictly greater than their level by December 31, 2026, so a single morning above the line ends one of those rungs for good, while a daily rung starts again with every new date.

Related guides and markets

The daily board itself, with its market line and the settled history, is on New York gas prices. What a rung's percentage claims, and what it leaves out, is covered in the guide to reading a probability, and another row of threshold contracts that pay several rungs at once is explained in how win total ladders settle. The state's other economic markets are collected on money.

This guide is not legal advice and not financial advice. It explains how a daily gas price contract is written and settled, and it names no contract to hold and no exchange to use.